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Accrington ST vs Portsmouth — League One 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
12/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 21Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Accrington ST34%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.28
Portsmouth
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 134 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.46
Portsmouth
1.34

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.43
Portsmouth
1.10

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
60%
Accrington ST or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
66%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
15%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
72%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
37%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
14%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
75%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
40%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
47%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.46 + Portsmouth defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.28

Portsmouth attack 1.34 + Accrington ST defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Accrington ST scores more
34%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
40%

Portsmouth at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Portsmouth

Accrington ST beat Portsmouth 4-1 in League One on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.