Accrington ST 0–4 Notts County: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Notts County

3/17/2026

League Two · Round 38The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST41%

×Draw25%

Notts County34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.30

Accrington ST

1.45

Notts County

1.30

Accrington ST creates 12% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 94 away

1.30

creates per match

1.38

1.23

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.30

Notts County

1.38

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.23

Notts County

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

66%

Accrington ST or Notts County

75%

Draw or Notts County

59%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

19%

Notts County wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

77%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

42%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

18%

Notts County 1+ goals

73%

Notts County 2+ goals

37%

Notts County 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

55%

Notts County (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Notts County away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.60 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.30 + Notts County defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Notts County attack 1.38 + Accrington ST defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Accrington ST scores more

41%

level

25%

Notts County scores more

34%

Accrington ST at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff