Accrington ST 0–3 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Mansfield Town

A. Lewis 75'

G. Maris 35'

D. Keillor-Dunn 29'

9/9/2023

League Two · Round 7Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Accrington ST35%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.30

Accrington ST

1.25

Mansfield Town

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 141 away

1.35

creates per match

1.25

1.35

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.35

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

62%

Accrington ST or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

65%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

15%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

71%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

36%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

13%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

73%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

37%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

48%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 91 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.35 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Accrington ST defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

35%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

38%

Mansfield Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Gale

Mansfield Town · F

7.9

Match Events

6'

Jay Rich-Baghuelou

29'

D. Keillor-Dunn

35'

G. Maris↳ D. Keillor-Dunn

47'

George Maris

57'

H. Boateng← G. Maris

67'

J. Gubbins← J. Rich-Baghuelou

75'

A. Lewis

77'

K. Adedoyin← L. Coyle

77'

W. Swan← D. Keillor-Dunn

78'

B. Cargill← C. MacDonald

90+5'

M. Lowe← J. Nolan

90+5'

J. Woods← S. Conneely

90+2'

G. Williams← A. Lewis

90+2'

O. Clarke← J. Gale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonMansfield

Overview

53%Possession47%

13Total Shots12

5Corners4

13Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots12

2On Target5

8Off Target4

3Blocked3

8Inside Box7

5Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

381Total Passes335

260Accurate Passes231

68%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides5