Accrington ST 4–3 Lincoln: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Lincoln

S. Finley 90+5'

S. Conneely 78'

J. Pritchard 70'

J. Shackell 36' (OG)

J. Shackell 76'

A. Lewis 53'

A. Scully 30'

2/15/2020

League One · Round 34Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST36%

×Draw26%

Lincoln38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchLincoln

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.35

Accrington ST

1.32

Lincoln

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 156 away

1.42

creates per match

1.26

1.44

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

Lincoln

1.26

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

Lincoln

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Lincoln+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Lincoln →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

62%

Accrington ST or Lincoln

74%

Draw or Lincoln

64%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

16%

Lincoln wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

73%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

38%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

15%

Lincoln 1+ goals

74%

Lincoln 2+ goals

39%

Lincoln 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

49%

Lincoln (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.22 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Lincoln defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Lincoln attack 1.26 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

36%

level

26%

Lincoln scores more

38%

Lincoln at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lincoln will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Pritchard

Accrington ST · M

8.3

Match Events

30'

A. Scully

36'

J. ShackellOwn goal

40'

Neal Eardley

45'

Sadou Diallo

50'

A. Lewis← H. Anderson

53'

A. Lewis

60'

S. Finley← S. Diallo

65'

Joseph Maguire

68'

J. Pritchard← D. Charles

70'

J. Pritchard

75'

Sam Finley

76'

J. Shackell↳ J. Grant

77'

C. Bishop← B. Ashley-Seal

78'

E. Chapman← J. Grant

78'

S. Conneely↳ J. Clark

89'

M. Bostwick← T. Hopper

90'

Seamus Conneely

90'

Mark Hughes

90+5'

S. Finley↳ J. Pritchard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonLincoln

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots10

3Corners6

15Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots10

7On Target6

3Off Target3

4Blocked1

7Inside Box9

7Outside Box1

Passing

48%Possession52%

322Total Passes350

205Accurate Passes212

64%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls16

5Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2