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Accrington ST vs Leeds United U21 — League #46 2026

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
7 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Leeds United U21
Leeds United U21
T. Uwakwe 72', 22', 5'
R. Cassidy 55', 38'
D. Charles 30'
C. Burgess 14'
9/8/2020League #46League #46 · Group Stage - 2Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Accrington ST79%
×Draw12%
Leeds United U2110%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
3.67
Leeds United U21
1.29

Accrington ST creates 184% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
3.33
Leeds United U21
1.25

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.33
Leeds United U21
4.00

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Leeds United U21+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Leeds United U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
90%
Accrington ST or Leeds United U21
88%
Draw or Leeds United U21
21%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
61%
Leeds United U21 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
97%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
87%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
68%
Leeds United U21 1+ goals
72%
Leeds United U21 2+ goals
37%
Leeds United U21 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
89%
Leeds United U21 (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Leeds United U21 away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 3.33 + Leeds United U21 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.67

Leeds United U21 attack 1.25 + Accrington ST defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Accrington ST scores more
79%
level
12%
Leeds United U21 scores more
10%

Accrington ST at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. UwakweAccrington STAccrington ST · M
10.0

Match Events

5'
T. Uwakwe
13'
Kris Moore
14'
C. Burgess
17'
H. Christy← C. Skerry
22'
T. Uwakwe
30'
D. Charles↳ R. Cassidy
38'
R. Cassidy↳ T. Uwakwe
46'
S. Sama← M. Butcher
46'
K. Spinelli← D. Charles
46'
A. Hughes← A. Pilkington
52'
Sam Leverett
55'
R. Cassidy
59'
T. Scully← R. Cassidy
72'
T. Uwakwe↳ C. Burgess
75'
Max Dean
78'
J. Littlewood← O. Bray

Possession

63%Accrington

Shots

42Accrington

Pass accuracy

54%Accrington

Statistics

AccringtonLeeds
Overview
63%Possession37%
42Total Shots5
6Corners1
11Fouls10
Shots
42Total Shots5
14On Target0
17Off Target3
11Blocked2
31Inside Box0
11Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
491Total Passes305
394Accurate Passes204
80%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Leeds United U21

Accrington ST beat Leeds United U21 7-0 in League #46 on September 8, 2020.

Goals: T. Uwakwe (5', 22', 72'), C. Burgess (14'), D. Charles (30'), R. Cassidy (38', 55').

Accrington ST controlled possession (63%) and registered 42 shots to 5.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.