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Accrington ST vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
18:45
Grimsby
Grimsby
9/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 4The Wham Stadium
Big match
43%
Grimsby
model favours
30%27%43%

Accrington ST sit 16, Grimsby 6 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST30%
×Draw27%
Grimsby43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.09
Grimsby
1.37

Grimsby creates 26% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.98
Grimsby
1.67

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.07
Grimsby
1.20

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
57%
Accrington ST or Grimsby
73%
Draw or Grimsby
70%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
12%
Grimsby wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
66%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
30%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
10%
Grimsby 1+ goals
75%
Grimsby 2+ goals
40%
Grimsby 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
41%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.20 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Grimsby defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Grimsby attack 1.67 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Accrington ST scores more
30%
level
27%
Grimsby scores more
43%

Grimsby at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grimsby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Accrington ST
Balanced
Grimsby
Attack-heavy
47%Possession52%
62%Pass accuracy68%
11.4Shots12.6
0.89xGBiggest gap1.65
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STGrimsby

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Grimsby
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%
0–11–13–22–50–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Grimsby
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Grimsby (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Grimsby. Match starts September 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Grimsby at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.