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Accrington ST vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
14:00
Gillingham
Gillingham
10/17/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 11The Wham Stadium
Big match
39%
Accrington ST
model favours
39%28%33%
1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST39%
×Draw28%
Gillingham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.25
Gillingham
1.14

Accrington ST creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.98
Gillingham
1.21

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.07
Gillingham
1.53

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more
Gillingham-0.29scores less

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
67%
Accrington ST or Gillingham
72%
Draw or Gillingham
61%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
17%
Gillingham wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
71%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
36%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
13%
Gillingham 1+ goals
68%
Gillingham 2+ goals
32%
Gillingham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
54%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.53 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Gillingham defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.25

Gillingham attack 1.21 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more
39%
level
28%
Gillingham scores more
33%

Accrington ST at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Accrington ST
Balanced
Gillingham
Balanced
47%Possession48%
62%Pass accuracy64%
11.4Shots11.7
0.89xGBiggest gap1.30
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STGillingham

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
5
Gillingham
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 50%
0–21–11–12–11–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Gillingham
WLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Gillingham (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Gillingham. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Gillingham at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.