Accrington ST 0–1 Gillingham: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Gillingham

K. Dempsey 45+1'

1/16/2021

League One · Round 24Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Accrington ST39%

×Draw26%

Gillingham35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchGillingham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.30

Accrington ST

1.40

Gillingham

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 99 away

1.42

creates per match

1.17

1.44

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

Gillingham

1.17

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

Gillingham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Gillingham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

65%

Accrington ST or Gillingham

74%

Draw or Gillingham

61%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

18%

Gillingham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

75%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

41%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

17%

Gillingham 1+ goals

73%

Gillingham 2+ goals

37%

Gillingham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

53%

Gillingham (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more

39%

level

26%

Gillingham scores more

35%

Accrington ST at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Dempsey

Gillingham · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

J. Russell← M. Butcher

45'

Ross Sykes

45+1'

K. Dempsey↳ A. MacDonald

62'

80'

81'

84'

90+4'

S. O'Keefe← J. Graham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonGillingham

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots9

9Corners8

14Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots9

2On Target4

8Off Target3

3Blocked2

8Inside Box5

5Outside Box4

Passing

56%Possession44%

352Total Passes278

247Accurate Passes169

70%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2