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Accrington ST vs Crewe — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
19:45
Crewe
Crewe
12/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 18The Wham Stadium
Big match
37%
Accrington ST
model favours
37%28%36%

Crewe score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST37%
×Draw28%
Crewe36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.21
Crewe
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.98
Crewe
1.30

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.07
Crewe
1.44

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more
Crewe-0.05on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Crewe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
64%
Accrington ST or Crewe
72%
Draw or Crewe
63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
16%
Crewe wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
70%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
34%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
12%
Crewe 1+ goals
70%
Crewe 2+ goals
33%
Crewe 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
51%
Crewe (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Crewe away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.44 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Crewe defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Crewe attack 1.30 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more
37%
level
28%
Crewe scores more
36%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 47% of Crewe’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Accrington ST
Balanced
Crewe
Balanced
47%Possession50%
62%Pass accuracy70%
11.4Shots11.2
0.89xGBiggest gap1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STCrewe

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Accrington ST
2
Draws
3
Crewe
Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 20%
2–00–21–00–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Crewe
WDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Crewe (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Crewe. Match starts December 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Crewe at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.