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Accrington ST vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
14:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
9/5/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 5The Wham Stadium
Big match
40%
Accrington ST
model favours
40%26%34%

Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST40%
×Draw26%
Crawley Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.36
Crawley Town
1.23

Accrington ST creates 11% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.93
Crawley Town
1.51

allows per match

Accrington ST
0.95
Crawley Town
1.80

finishing

Accrington ST+0.57scores more
Crawley Town-0.59scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
66%
Accrington ST or Crawley Town
74%
Draw or Crawley Town
60%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
18%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
74%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
39%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
16%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
71%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
35%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
54%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.93 + Crawley Town defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.36

Crawley Town attack 1.51 + Accrington ST defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Accrington ST scores more
40%
level
26%
Crawley Town scores more
34%

Accrington ST at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Accrington ST
Defensively solid
Crawley Town
Balanced
47%Possession54%
62%Pass accuracy71%
11.4Shots12.7
0.88xGBiggest gap1.41
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STCrawley Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Accrington ST
3
Draws
4
Crawley Town
Avg goals: 3.2BTTS: 70%
3–31–10–11–34–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Crawley Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Crawley Town. Match starts September 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Crawley Town at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.