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Accrington ST vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
14:00
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
4/10/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 40The Wham Stadium
Big match
39%
Bristol Rovers
model favours
33%28%39%

Bristol Rovers score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST33%
×Draw28%
Bristol Rovers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.10
Bristol Rovers
1.21

Bristol Rovers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.98
Bristol Rovers
1.35

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.07
Bristol Rovers
1.23

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more
Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
61%
Accrington ST or Bristol Rovers
72%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
67%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
13%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
67%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
30%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
10%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
70%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
34%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
46%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more
33%
level
28%
Bristol Rovers scores more
39%

Bristol Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Bristol Rovers’s matches
  • 73% of Bristol Rovers’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Accrington ST
Balanced
Bristol Rovers
Defensively solid
47%Possession52%
62%Pass accuracy66%
11.4Shots12.5
0.89xGBiggest gap1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STBristol Rovers

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

5
Accrington ST
2
Draws
2
Bristol Rovers
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 56%
0–23–12–01–01–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Rovers
DDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Bristol Rovers (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Bristol Rovers. Match starts April 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Bristol Rovers at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.