Accrington ST 3–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

I. Sinclair 77'

F. Rawson 72'

I. Heath 6'

K. Conteh 59'

11/15/2025

League Two · Round 16The Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Accrington ST33%

×Draw28%

Bristol Rovers39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.21

Accrington ST

1.10

Bristol Rovers

1.21

Bristol Rovers creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

0.98

creates per match

1.35

1.07

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.98

Bristol Rovers

1.35

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.07

Bristol Rovers

1.23

+0.35scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Accrington ST+0.35scores more

Bristol Rovers-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

61%

Accrington ST or Bristol Rovers

72%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

67%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

13%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

67%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

30%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

10%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

70%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

34%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

46%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.23 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.98 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10

Bristol Rovers attack 1.35 + Accrington ST defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more

33%

level

28%

Bristol Rovers scores more

39%

Bristol Rovers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

F. Rawson

Accrington ST · D

8.0

Match Events

6'

23'

26'

40'

40'

46'

R. Sotiriou← B. Bilongo

57'

59'

60'

62'

67'

L. Thomas← E. Harrison

72'

77'

79'

79'

80'

80'

T. Moore← M. Southam-Hales

88'

S. Conneely← L. Coyle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonBristol

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots10

1.87Expected Goals (xG)0.93

2Corners5

13Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots10

5On Target2

2Off Target4

2Blocked4

7Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

271Total Passes409

149Accurate Passes260

55%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Offsides1

League Two: Accrington ST 3–1 Bristol Rovers

Accrington ST beat Bristol Rovers 3-1 in League Two on November 15, 2025.

Goals: I. Heath (6'), K. Conteh (59'), F. Rawson (72'), I. Sinclair (77').

Bristol Rovers controlled possession (60%) and registered 10 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Wham Stadium in Accrington.

Accrington ST vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Accrington ST 3–1 Bristol Rovers