Accrington ST 0–0 Blackpool: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackpool

12/19/2020

League One · Round 19Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST38%

×Draw27%

Blackpool36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchBlackpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.27

Accrington ST

1.31

Blackpool

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 134 away

1.42

creates per match

1.11

1.44

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

Blackpool

1.11

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

Blackpool

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Blackpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

64%

Accrington ST or Blackpool

73%

Draw or Blackpool

62%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

17%

Blackpool wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

73%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

38%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

14%

Blackpool 1+ goals

72%

Blackpool 2+ goals

36%

Blackpool 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

51%

Blackpool (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Blackpool away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.20 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Blackpool defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Blackpool attack 1.11 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accrington ST scores more

38%

level

27%

Blackpool scores more

36%

Accrington ST at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Maxwell

Blackpool · G

7.7

Match Events

55'

Kenneth Dougall

73'

B. Lubala← J. Yates

83'

G. Ward← M. Virtue-Thick

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonBlackpool

Overview

54%Possession46%

19Total Shots6

9Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

19Total Shots6

4On Target2

8Off Target2

7Blocked2

10Inside Box4

9Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

365Total Passes311

241Accurate Passes174

66%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides4