Accrington ST 0–0 Blackburn: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Blackburn

K. Adedoyin 42' (pen)

J. Nolan 5'

T. Dolan 53'

R. Hedges 44'

7/8/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Accrington ST25%

×Draw38%

Blackburn37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchBlackburn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.60

0.80

Accrington ST

0.60

Blackburn

0.80

Blackburn creates 33% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.60

creates per match

0.80

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Accrington ST

0.60

Blackburn

0.80

allows per match

Accrington ST

0.80

Blackburn

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Blackburn+0.00on par

Total goals

Under83
Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No75
Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Blackburn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–120%

0–28%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–04%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

41%59%2.5

17%83%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

63%

Accrington ST or Blackburn

62%

Draw or Blackburn

75%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

6%

Blackburn wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

45%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

12%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

2%

Blackburn 1+ goals

55%

Blackburn 2+ goals

19%

Blackburn 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

40%

Blackburn (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Blackburn away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.60 + Blackburn defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.60

Blackburn attack 0.80 + Accrington ST defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more

25%

level

38%

Blackburn scores more

37%

Blackburn at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Blackburn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Nolan

42'

K. AdedoyinPenalty

44'

R. Hedges

53'

T. Dolan

Accrington

Blackburn

Manager: J. Coleman

Manager: J. Tomasson