Accrington ST 2–1 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

AFC Wimbledon

D. Charles 21'

J. Clark 14'

J. Pigott 73'

2/1/2020

League One · Round 31Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST44%

×Draw26%

AFC Wimbledon30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.20

Accrington ST

1.50

AFC Wimbledon

1.20

Accrington ST creates 25% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 109 away

1.42

creates per match

0.96

1.44

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

AFC Wimbledon

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

70%

Accrington ST or AFC Wimbledon

74%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

56%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

22%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

78%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

44%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

19%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

70%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

34%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

59%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Accrington ST scores more

44%

level

26%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

30%

Accrington ST at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

C. Johnson

Accrington ST · D

7.4

Match Events

14'

J. Clark↳ J. Pritchard

21'

D. Charles↳ C. Johnson

27'

46'

55'

55'

69'

S. McLoughlin← A. Wordsworth

73'

J. Pigott↳ C. Reilly

77'

A. Alese← J. Maguire

78'

O. Zanzala← S. Diallo

80'

A. Roscrow← L. ONeill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonAFC

Overview

42%Possession58%

13Total Shots7

3Corners0

11Fouls14

Shots

13Total Shots7

4On Target1

3Off Target5

6Blocked1

8Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

42%Possession58%

311Total Passes405

187Accurate Passes277

60%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards0

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1