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Accra Lions vs Young Apostles — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Young Apostles
Young Apostles
10/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7University Of Ghana Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Accra Lions55%
×Draw28%
Young Apostles17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.36
Young Apostles
0.61

Accra Lions creates 123% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Young Apostles
0.38

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Young Apostles
1.41

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Young Apostles+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Young Apostles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
83%
Accra Lions or Young Apostles
72%
Draw or Young Apostles
45%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
27%
Young Apostles wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
74%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
39%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
16%
Young Apostles 1+ goals
46%
Young Apostles 2+ goals
13%
Young Apostles 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
77%
Young Apostles (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Young Apostles away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Young Apostles defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.36

Young Apostles attack 0.38 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Accra Lions scores more
55%
level
28%
Young Apostles scores more
17%

Accra Lions at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accra Lions vs Young Apostles

Accra Lions and Young Apostles drew 0-0 in Premier League on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at University Of Ghana Sports Stadium in Accra.