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Accra Lions vs True Democracy — Division One League 2025

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
True Democracy
True Democracy
10/20/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 4WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Accra Lions37%
×Draw29%
True Democracy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.17
True Democracy
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.13
True Democracy
0.93

allows per match

Accra Lions
1.27
True Democracy
1.20

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
True Democracy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

True Democracy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
66%
Accra Lions or True Democracy
71%
Draw or True Democracy
63%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
16%
True Democracy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
69%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
33%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
11%
True Democracy 1+ goals
67%
True Democracy 2+ goals
30%
True Democracy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
52%
True Democracy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

True Democracy away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + True Democracy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

True Democracy attack 0.93 + Accra Lions defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accra Lions scores more
37%
level
29%
True Democracy scores more
34%

Accra Lions at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Accra Lions 1–1 True Democracy

Accra Lions and True Democracy drew 1-1 in Division One League on October 20, 2025.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.