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Accra Lions vs Tamale City — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tamale City
Tamale City
9/23/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Accra Lions52%
×Draw29%
Tamale City18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.28
Tamale City
0.63

Accra Lions creates 103% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Tamale City
0.41

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Tamale City
1.24

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Tamale City+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Tamale City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
82%
Accra Lions or Tamale City
71%
Draw or Tamale City
48%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
25%
Tamale City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
72%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
37%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
14%
Tamale City 1+ goals
47%
Tamale City 2+ goals
13%
Tamale City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
74%
Tamale City (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Tamale City away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Tamale City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tamale City attack 0.41 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Accra Lions scores more
52%
level
29%
Tamale City scores more
18%

Accra Lions at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accra Lions vs Tamale City

Accra Lions beat Tamale City 1-0 in Premier League on September 23, 2022.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.