Accra Lions 1–3 Samartex: Result & Stats

Accra Lions

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Samartex

12/29/2023

Premier League · Round 17West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Accra Lions49%

×Draw30%

Samartex21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accra LionsExpected goals in this matchSamartex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.69

Accra Lions

1.22

Samartex

0.69

Accra Lions creates 77% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

1.32

creates per match

0.54

0.84

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Accra Lions

1.32

Samartex

0.54

allows per match

Accra Lions

0.84

Samartex

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Samartex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw

79%

Accra Lions or Samartex

70%

Draw or Samartex

51%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+

22%

Samartex wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals

70%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

34%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

12%

Samartex 1+ goals

50%

Samartex 2+ goals

15%

Samartex 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

70%

Samartex (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.22

Samartex attack 0.54 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Accra Lions scores more

49%

level

30%

Samartex scores more

21%

Accra Lions at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff