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Accra Lions vs Real Tamale — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Real Tamale
Real Tamale
4/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 29Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Accra Lions60%
×Draw23%
Real Tamale17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.77
Real Tamale
0.83

Accra Lions creates 113% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Real Tamale
0.83

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Real Tamale
2.21

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Real Tamale+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Real Tamale →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
83%
Accra Lions or Real Tamale
77%
Draw or Real Tamale
40%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
34%
Real Tamale wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
83%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
53%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
26%
Real Tamale 1+ goals
56%
Real Tamale 2+ goals
20%
Real Tamale 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
78%
Real Tamale (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Real Tamale away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Real Tamale defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.77

Real Tamale attack 0.83 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Accra Lions scores more
60%
level
23%
Real Tamale scores more
17%

Accra Lions at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Accra Lions 1–2 Real Tamale

Real Tamale beat Accra Lions 2-1 in Premier League on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.