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Accra Lions vs Nania — Division One League 2025

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nania
Nania
3/1/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 21WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Accra Lions38%
×Draw31%
Nania31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.06
Nania
0.94

Accra Lions creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.13
Nania
0.60

allows per match

Accra Lions
1.27
Nania
1.00

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Nania+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Nania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
69%
Accra Lions or Nania
69%
Draw or Nania
62%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
15%
Nania wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
65%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
29%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
9%
Nania 1+ goals
61%
Nania 2+ goals
24%
Nania 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
55%
Nania (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Nania away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + Nania defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nania attack 0.60 + Accra Lions defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Accra Lions scores more
38%
level
31%
Nania scores more
31%

Accra Lions at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Accra Lions 3–1 Nania

Accra Lions beat Nania 3-1 in Division One League on March 1, 2026.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.