Accra Lions 1–0 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

Accra Lions

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Legon Cities

S. Bassit 48'

5/9/2022

Premier League · Round 28Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Accra Lions52%

×Draw28%

Legon Cities20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accra LionsExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.71

Accra Lions

1.35

Legon Cities

0.71

Accra Lions creates 90% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 93 away

1.32

creates per match

0.59

0.84

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Accra Lions

1.32

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

Accra Lions

0.84

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw

80%

Accra Lions or Legon Cities

72%

Draw or Legon Cities

48%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+

25%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals

74%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

39%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

15%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

51%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

16%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

73%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Accra Lions scores more

52%

level

28%

Legon Cities scores more

20%

Accra Lions at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

S. Bassit

60'

90+2'

F. Akatuk

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff