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Accra Lions vs Inter Allies — Division One League 2025

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
4/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 27WAFA Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Accra Lions39%
×Draw29%
Inter Allies33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.20
Inter Allies
1.07

Accra Lions creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.13
Inter Allies
0.87

allows per match

Accra Lions
1.27
Inter Allies
1.27

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
67%
Accra Lions or Inter Allies
71%
Draw or Inter Allies
61%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
17%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
70%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
34%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
12%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
66%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
29%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
55%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.13 + Inter Allies defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Inter Allies attack 0.87 + Accra Lions defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accra Lions scores more
39%
level
29%
Inter Allies scores more
33%

Accra Lions at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Accra Lions 0–1 Inter Allies

Inter Allies beat Accra Lions 1-0 in Division One League on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at WAFA Park in Sogakope.