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Accra Lions vs Dreams — Premier League 2019

Accra Lions
Accra Lions
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dreams
Dreams
6/8/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Ohene Djan Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Accra Lions48%
×Draw29%
Dreams23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accra Lions
1.29
Dreams
0.80

Accra Lions creates 61% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 110 away

creates per match

Accra Lions
1.32
Dreams
0.77

allows per match

Accra Lions
0.84
Dreams
1.27

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par
Dreams+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

Dreams →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw
77%
Accra Lions or Dreams
71%
Draw or Dreams
52%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+
22%
Dreams wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals
72%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
37%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
14%
Dreams 1+ goals
55%
Dreams 2+ goals
19%
Dreams 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)
67%
Dreams (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Dreams away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.27 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + Dreams defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Dreams attack 0.77 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Accra Lions scores more
48%
level
29%
Dreams scores more
23%

Accra Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accra Lions vs Dreams

Accra Lions beat Dreams 1-0 in Premier League on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Ohene Djan Sports Stadium in Accra.