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Acassuso vs Sportivo Italiano — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Acassuso
Acassuso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sportivo Italiano
Sportivo Italiano
7/26/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 6La Quema Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Acassuso39%
×Draw31%
Sportivo Italiano30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acassuso
1.06
Sportivo Italiano
0.90

Acassuso creates 18% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 54 away

creates per match

Acassuso
1.03
Sportivo Italiano
0.89

allows per match

Acassuso
0.90
Sportivo Italiano
1.09

finishing

Acassuso+0.00on par
Sportivo Italiano+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acassuso ↓

Sportivo Italiano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Acassuso or draw
70%
Acassuso or Sportivo Italiano
69%
Draw or Sportivo Italiano
61%

Winning margin

Acassuso wins by 2+
15%
Sportivo Italiano wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Acassuso 1+ goals
65%
Acassuso 2+ goals
29%
Acassuso 3+ goals
9%
Sportivo Italiano 1+ goals
59%
Sportivo Italiano 2+ goals
23%
Sportivo Italiano 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Acassuso (draw refunded)
56%
Sportivo Italiano (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acassuso at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.90 · 130 matches

Sportivo Italiano away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acassuso attack 1.03 + Sportivo Italiano defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Sportivo Italiano attack 0.89 + Acassuso defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Acassuso scores more
39%
level
31%
Sportivo Italiano scores more
30%

Acassuso at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Acassuso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Acassuso 2–1 Sportivo Italiano

Acassuso beat Sportivo Italiano 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 26, 2025.

The match was played at La Quema Stadium in Boulogne Sur Mer.