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Acassuso vs Flandria — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Acassuso
Acassuso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Flandria
Flandria
9/13/2021Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 9Estadio Armenia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

Acassuso37%
×Draw32%
Flandria31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acassuso
0.99
Flandria
0.87

Acassuso creates 14% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 104 away

creates per match

Acassuso
1.03
Flandria
0.84

allows per match

Acassuso
0.90
Flandria
0.95

finishing

Acassuso+0.00on par
Flandria+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acassuso ↓

Flandria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Acassuso or draw
69%
Acassuso or Flandria
68%
Draw or Flandria
63%

Winning margin

Acassuso wins by 2+
14%
Flandria wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Acassuso 1+ goals
63%
Acassuso 2+ goals
26%
Acassuso 3+ goals
8%
Flandria 1+ goals
58%
Flandria 2+ goals
22%
Flandria 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Acassuso (draw refunded)
55%
Flandria (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acassuso at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.90 · 130 matches

Flandria away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acassuso attack 1.03 + Flandria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.99

Flandria attack 0.84 + Acassuso defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Acassuso scores more
37%
level
32%
Flandria scores more
31%

Acassuso at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Acassuso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Acassuso 2–1 Flandria

Acassuso beat Flandria 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on September 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Armenia in Ingeniero Maschwitz, Provincia de Buenos Aires.