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Acassuso vs Argentino de Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Acassuso
Acassuso
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Argentino de Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
6/28/2025Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Clausura - 1La Quema Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Acassuso36%
×Draw31%
Argentino de Merlo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Acassuso
1.01
Argentino de Merlo
0.93

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 74 away

creates per match

Acassuso
1.03
Argentino de Merlo
0.95

allows per match

Acassuso
0.90
Argentino de Merlo
0.99

finishing

Acassuso+0.00on par
Argentino de Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Acassuso ↓

Argentino de Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Acassuso or draw
68%
Acassuso or Argentino de Merlo
69%
Draw or Argentino de Merlo
64%

Winning margin

Acassuso wins by 2+
14%
Argentino de Merlo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Acassuso 1+ goals
64%
Acassuso 2+ goals
27%
Acassuso 3+ goals
8%
Argentino de Merlo 1+ goals
61%
Argentino de Merlo 2+ goals
24%
Argentino de Merlo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Acassuso (draw refunded)
53%
Argentino de Merlo (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Acassuso at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.90 · 130 matches

Argentino de Merlo away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Acassuso attack 1.03 + Argentino de Merlo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.01

Argentino de Merlo attack 0.95 + Acassuso defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Acassuso scores more
36%
level
31%
Argentino de Merlo scores more
32%

Acassuso at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Acassuso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Acassuso vs Argentino de Merlo

Acassuso beat Argentino de Merlo 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at La Quema Stadium in Boulogne Sur Mer.