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Ação vs Poconé — Matogrossense 2 2024

Ação
Ação
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Poconé
Poconé
5/4/2024Matogrossense 2Matogrossense 2 · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Dito Souza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ação34%
×Draw23%
Poconé43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ação
1.56
Poconé
1.77

Poconé creates 13% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ação
1.86
Poconé
2.25

allows per match

Ação
1.29
Poconé
1.25

finishing

Ação+0.00on par
Poconé+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ação ↓

Poconé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ação or draw
57%
Ação or Poconé
77%
Draw or Poconé
66%

Winning margin

Ação wins by 2+
16%
Poconé wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ação 1+ goals
79%
Ação 2+ goals
46%
Ação 3+ goals
21%
Poconé 1+ goals
83%
Poconé 2+ goals
53%
Poconé 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Ação (draw refunded)
44%
Poconé (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ação at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Poconé away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ação attack 1.86 + Poconé defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Poconé attack 2.25 + Ação defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ação scores more
34%
level
23%
Poconé scores more
43%

Poconé at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Poconé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Matogrossense 2: Ação 2–1 Poconé

Ação beat Poconé 2-1 in Matogrossense 2 on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dito Souza in Várzea Grande, Mato Grosso.