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Academico Viseu vs Vilafranquense — Segunda Liga 2018

Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
5/10/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 32Estádio Municipal de Aveiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Academico Viseu44%
×Draw27%
Vilafranquense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academico Viseu
1.38
Vilafranquense
1.06

Academico Viseu creates 30% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 63 away

creates per match

Academico Viseu
1.27
Vilafranquense
1.02

allows per match

Academico Viseu
1.10
Vilafranquense
1.49

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par
Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Vilafranquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw
71%
Academico Viseu or Vilafranquense
73%
Draw or Vilafranquense
56%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+
21%
Vilafranquense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals
75%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
40%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
16%
Vilafranquense 1+ goals
65%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
29%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
60%
Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.27 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Academico Viseu scores more
44%
level
27%
Vilafranquense scores more
29%

Academico Viseu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 1–2 Vilafranquense

Vilafranquense beat Academico Viseu 2-1 in Segunda Liga on May 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Aveiro in Aveiro.