Academico Viseu 2–0 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

União de Leiria

1/16/2026

Segunda Liga · Round 18Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Academico Viseu36%

×Draw27%

União de Leiria37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.24

Academico Viseu

1.21

União de Leiria

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 51 away

1.27

creates per match

1.37

1.10

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.27

União de Leiria

1.37

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.10

União de Leiria

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

63%

Academico Viseu or União de Leiria

73%

Draw or União de Leiria

64%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

15%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

70%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

34%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

12%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

71%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

35%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

49%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.27 + União de Leiria defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

União de Leiria attack 1.37 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

36%

level

27%

União de Leiria scores more

37%

União de Leiria at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 2–0 União de Leiria

Academico Viseu beat União de Leiria 2-0 in Segunda Liga on January 16, 2026.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.

Academico Viseu vs União de Leiria — Segunda Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Segunda Liga: Academico Viseu 2–0 União de Leiria