Academico Viseu 1–3 União de Leiria: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

União de Leiria

10/21/2023

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Academico Viseu25%

×Draw24%

União de Leiria51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchUnião de Leiria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.72

Academico Viseu

1.14

União de Leiria

1.72

União de Leiria creates 51% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

1.58

creates per match

2.85

0.58

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.58

União de Leiria

2.85

allows per match

Academico Viseu

0.58

União de Leiria

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

União de Leiria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

União de Leiria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

49%

Academico Viseu or União de Leiria

76%

Draw or União de Leiria

75%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

10%

União de Leiria wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

68%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

32%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

11%

União de Leiria 1+ goals

82%

União de Leiria 2+ goals

51%

União de Leiria 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

33%

União de Leiria (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

União de Leiria away — creates 2.85, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.58 + União de Leiria defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.14

União de Leiria attack 2.85 + Academico Viseu defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

25%

level

24%

União de Leiria scores more

51%

União de Leiria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "União de Leiria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff