Academico Viseu 1–1 Tondela: Result & Stats

Academico Viseu

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tondela

2/23/2025

Segunda Liga · Round 23Estádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Academico Viseu34%

×Draw28%

Tondela38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academico ViseuExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.25

Academico Viseu

1.17

Tondela

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 134 home / 51 away

1.27

creates per match

1.39

1.10

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Academico Viseu

1.27

Tondela

1.39

allows per match

Academico Viseu

1.10

Tondela

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Tondela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw

62%

Academico Viseu or Tondela

72%

Draw or Tondela

66%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+

14%

Tondela wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals

69%

Academico Viseu 2+ goals

33%

Academico Viseu 3+ goals

11%

Tondela 1+ goals

71%

Tondela 2+ goals

36%

Tondela 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)

47%

Tondela (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.10 · 134 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.27 + Tondela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tondela attack 1.39 + Academico Viseu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Academico Viseu scores more

34%

level

28%

Tondela scores more

38%

Tondela at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tondela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff