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Academico Viseu vs Oriental Lisboa — Taça de Portugal 2018

Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Oriental Lisboa
Oriental Lisboa
10/15/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Academico Viseu51%
×Draw25%
Oriental Lisboa24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academico Viseu
1.59
Oriental Lisboa
0.99

Academico Viseu creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Academico Viseu
1.58
Oriental Lisboa
1.40

allows per match

Academico Viseu
0.58
Oriental Lisboa
1.60

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par
Oriental Lisboa+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Oriental Lisboa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw
76%
Academico Viseu or Oriental Lisboa
75%
Draw or Oriental Lisboa
49%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+
27%
Oriental Lisboa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals
80%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
47%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
21%
Oriental Lisboa 1+ goals
63%
Oriental Lisboa 2+ goals
26%
Oriental Lisboa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
68%
Oriental Lisboa (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Oriental Lisboa away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.58 + Oriental Lisboa defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.59

Oriental Lisboa attack 1.40 + Academico Viseu defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Academico Viseu scores more
51%
level
25%
Oriental Lisboa scores more
24%

Academico Viseu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Academico Viseu 1–0 Oriental Lisboa

Academico Viseu beat Oriental Lisboa 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.