Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Academico Viseu vs Canelas 2010 — Taça de Portugal 2018

Academico Viseu
Academico Viseuadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
1/16/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Quarter-finalsEstádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Academico Viseu41%
×Draw36%
Canelas 201023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academico Viseu
0.89
Canelas 2010
0.59

Academico Viseu creates 51% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 5 away

creates per match

Academico Viseu
1.58
Canelas 2010
0.60

allows per match

Academico Viseu
0.58
Canelas 2010
0.20

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par
Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Canelas 2010 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw
77%
Academico Viseu or Canelas 2010
64%
Draw or Canelas 2010
59%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+
15%
Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals
59%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
22%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
6%
Canelas 2010 1+ goals
45%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
12%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
64%
Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.60, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.58 + Canelas 2010 defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.89

Canelas 2010 attack 0.60 + Academico Viseu defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Academico Viseu scores more
41%
level
36%
Canelas 2010 scores more
23%

Academico Viseu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Academico Viseu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academico Viseu vs Canelas 2010

Academico Viseu beat Canelas 2010 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on January 16, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.