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Academico Viseu vs Camacha — Taça de Portugal 2018

Academico Viseu
Academico Viseu
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Camacha
Camacha
11/9/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Municipal do Fontelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Academico Viseu29%
×Draw24%
Camacha47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academico Viseu
1.29
Camacha
1.71

Camacha creates 33% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 6 away

creates per match

Academico Viseu
1.58
Camacha
2.83

allows per match

Academico Viseu
0.58
Camacha
1.00

finishing

Academico Viseu+0.00on par
Camacha+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academico Viseu ↓

Camacha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Academico Viseu or draw
53%
Academico Viseu or Camacha
76%
Draw or Camacha
71%

Winning margin

Academico Viseu wins by 2+
12%
Camacha wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Academico Viseu 1+ goals
72%
Academico Viseu 2+ goals
37%
Academico Viseu 3+ goals
14%
Camacha 1+ goals
82%
Camacha 2+ goals
51%
Camacha 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Academico Viseu (draw refunded)
38%
Camacha (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academico Viseu at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Camacha away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academico Viseu attack 1.58 + Camacha defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Camacha attack 2.83 + Academico Viseu defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Academico Viseu scores more
29%
level
24%
Camacha scores more
47%

Camacha at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Camacha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academico Viseu vs Camacha

Academico Viseu beat Camacha 3-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal do Fontelo in Viseu.