Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Academica vs Vitoria Setubal — Liga 3 2021

Academica
Academica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
11/5/2022Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 8Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Academica47%
×Draw27%
Vitoria Setubal26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.45
Vitoria Setubal
1.00

Academica creates 45% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Vitoria Setubal
0.96

allows per match

Academica
1.05
Vitoria Setubal
1.57

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Academica or draw
74%
Academica or Vitoria Setubal
73%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
53%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
23%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
77%
Academica 2+ goals
42%
Academica 3+ goals
18%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
63%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
26%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
65%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.96 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Academica scores more
47%
level
27%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
26%

Academica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Academica 3–0 Vitoria Setubal

Academica beat Vitoria Setubal 3-0 in Liga 3 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.