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Academica vs Vilafranquense — Segunda Liga 2018

Academica
Academica
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vilafranquense
Vilafranquense
5/19/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 26Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Academica45%
×Draw26%
Vilafranquense29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.43
Vilafranquense
1.09

Academica creates 31% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 63 away

creates per match

Academica
1.37
Vilafranquense
1.02

allows per match

Academica
1.16
Vilafranquense
1.49

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Vilafranquense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Vilafranquense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Academica or draw
71%
Academica or Vilafranquense
74%
Draw or Vilafranquense
55%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
22%
Vilafranquense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
76%
Academica 2+ goals
42%
Academica 3+ goals
17%
Vilafranquense 1+ goals
66%
Vilafranquense 2+ goals
30%
Vilafranquense 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
61%
Vilafranquense (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

Vilafranquense away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.49 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.37 + Vilafranquense defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.43

Vilafranquense attack 1.02 + Academica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Academica scores more
45%
level
26%
Vilafranquense scores more
29%

Academica at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Academica 2–2 Vilafranquense

Academica and Vilafranquense drew 2-2 in Segunda Liga on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.