Academica 0–4 União Santarém: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

União Santarém

Rúben Araújo 90+1'

Bruno Ventura 78'

Ricardo Apolinário 75'

Gustavo Evaristo 34'

5/4/2025

Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 10Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academica40%

×Draw28%

União Santarém32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchUnião Santarém

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Academica

1.25

União Santarém

1.07

Academica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

1.05

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Academica

1.33

União Santarém

1.09

allows per match

Academica

1.05

União Santarém

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

União Santarém+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

União Santarém →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Academica or draw

68%

Academica or União Santarém

72%

Draw or União Santarém

60%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

18%

União Santarém wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

71%

Academica 2+ goals

36%

Academica 3+ goals

13%

União Santarém 1+ goals

66%

União Santarém 2+ goals

29%

União Santarém 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

56%

União Santarém (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

União Santarém away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + União Santarém defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

União Santarém attack 1.09 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Academica scores more

40%

level

28%

União Santarém scores more

32%

Academica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

R. Apolinario

34'

G. Ferreira

34'

Gustavo Evaristo

46'

Lucas Henrique← Vasco Gomes

46'

N. Obiora← António Montez

46'

Edgar Costa← Duarte Carvalho

59'

Tiago Madeira← Manu

68'

Gabriel Morais← Gonçalo Ferreira

68'

Rúben Araújo← Gustavo Evaristo

68'

Bruno Ventura← Juninho

75'

Ricardo Apolinário

78'

Bruno Ventura

83'

Elvis Mendes← Vítor Bruno

83'

H. Doukouré← Ricardo Apolinário

83'

Ricardo Fernandes← Diogo Balau

90+1'

Rúben Araújo

Academica

União

⚽

▼

Apolinári

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Pedro Machado

46'▲Lucas Henrique←▼Vasco Gomes

46'▲N. Obiora←▼António Montez

46'▲Edgar Costa←▼Duarte Carvalho

68'▲Gabriel Morais←▼Gonçalo Ferreira

83'▲Elvis Mendes←▼Vítor Bruno

Academica substitutes

HenriqueObioraCostaMoraisMendes

Manager: Carlos Fernandes

59'▲Tiago Madeira←▼Manu

68'▲Rúben Araújo←▼Gustavo Evaristo

68'▲Bruno Ventura←▼Juninho

83'▲H. Doukouré←▼Ricardo Apolinário

83'▲Ricardo Fernandes←▼Diogo Balau

União Santarém substitutes

MadeiraAraújoVenturaDoukouréFernandes

Liga 3: Academica 0–4 União Santarém

União Santarém beat Academica 4-0 in Liga 3 on May 4, 2025.

Goals: Gustavo Evaristo (34'), Ricardo Apolinário (75'), Bruno Ventura (78'), Rúben Araújo (90+1').

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.

Academica vs União Santarém — Liga 3 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga 3: Academica 0–4 União Santarém