Academica 1–1 Tondela: Result & Stats

Academica

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tondela

10/2/2022

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Academica37%

×Draw25%

Tondela37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchTondela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

Academica

1.42

Tondela

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.33

creates per match

1.50

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Academica

1.33

Tondela

1.50

allows per match

Academica

1.33

Tondela

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Tondela+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Tondela →

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Academica or draw

63%

Academica or Tondela

75%

Draw or Tondela

63%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

17%

Tondela wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

76%

Academica 2+ goals

41%

Academica 3+ goals

17%

Tondela 1+ goals

76%

Tondela 2+ goals

41%

Tondela 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

50%

Tondela (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Tondela away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Tondela defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tondela attack 1.50 + Academica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Academica scores more

37%

level

25%

Tondela scores more

37%

Academica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff