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Academica vs Pêro Pinheiro — Liga 3 2021

Academica
Academica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Pêro Pinheiro
Pêro Pinheiro
1/13/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 16Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Academica61%
×Draw23%
Pêro Pinheiro16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.74
Pêro Pinheiro
0.74

Academica creates 135% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 14 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Pêro Pinheiro
0.43

allows per match

Academica
1.05
Pêro Pinheiro
2.14

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Pêro Pinheiro+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Pêro Pinheiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Academica or draw
84%
Academica or Pêro Pinheiro
77%
Draw or Pêro Pinheiro
39%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
35%
Pêro Pinheiro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
82%
Academica 2+ goals
52%
Academica 3+ goals
25%
Pêro Pinheiro 1+ goals
52%
Pêro Pinheiro 2+ goals
17%
Pêro Pinheiro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
80%
Pêro Pinheiro (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Pêro Pinheiro away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.14 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Pêro Pinheiro defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.74

Pêro Pinheiro attack 0.43 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Academica scores more
61%
level
23%
Pêro Pinheiro scores more
16%

Academica at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Academica 3–0 Pêro Pinheiro

Academica beat Pêro Pinheiro 3-0 in Liga 3 on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.