Academica 3–0 Naval 1893: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Naval 1893

M. Berger 72'

Miguel Fidalgo 56'

M. Sougou 16' (pen)

9/12/2010

Primeira Liga · Round 4Estádio EFAPEL (Coimbra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Academica49%

×Draw24%

Naval 189327%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchNaval 1893

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.19

Academica

1.71

Naval 1893

1.19

Academica creates 44% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 10 away

1.12

creates per match

1.00

1.37

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Academica

1.12

Naval 1893

1.00

allows per match

Academica

1.37

Naval 1893

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Naval 1893+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Naval 1893 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Academica or draw

73%

Academica or Naval 1893

76%

Draw or Naval 1893

51%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

27%

Naval 1893 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

82%

Academica 2+ goals

51%

Academica 3+ goals

24%

Naval 1893 1+ goals

70%

Naval 1893 2+ goals

33%

Naval 1893 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

65%

Naval 1893 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.37 · 84 matches

Naval 1893 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.12 + Naval 1893 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.71

Naval 1893 attack 1.00 + Academica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Academica scores more

49%

level

24%

Naval 1893 scores more

27%

Academica at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. SougouPenalty

20'

Orestes← Camora

53'

Miguel Fidalgo← Éder

56'

Miguel Fidalgo

61'

Manuel Godinho← A. Hauw

71'

Marinho← João Pedro

72'

M. Berger

73'

Júnior Paraíba← Diogo Valente

74'

Laionel← M. Sougou

Academica

Naval

17

Salin

7

Carlitos

6

Cruz

45

▼

91

3

25

15

▼

Hauw

37

Machado

20

▼

Pedro

11

Rojas

1

Peiser

5

⚽

2

15

60

7

66

50

18

⚽

▼

Sougou

23

▼

Valente

21

▼

Éder

53'▲Miguel Fidalgo←▼Éder

73'▲Júnior Paraíba←▼Diogo Valente

74'▲Laionel←▼M. Sougou

Academica substitutes

14Fidalgo88Paraíba11Laionel85Gomes4Nunes8Sow12Ricardo

20'▲Orestes←▼Camora

61'▲Manuel Godinho←▼A. Hauw

71'▲Marinho←▼João Pedro

Naval 1893 substitutes

4Orestes16Godinho77Marinho30Giuliano13Real1Baptista19Prévitali