Academica 1–1 Leixoes: Result & Stats

Academica

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leixoes

João Mário 90+2'

Nenê 65' (pen)

1/26/2021

Segunda Liga · Round 17Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Academica40%

×Draw28%

Leixoes32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AcademicaExpected goals in this matchLeixoes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.08

Academica

1.26

Leixoes

1.08

Academica creates 17% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 130 away

1.23

creates per match

1.04

1.12

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Academica

1.23

Leixoes

1.04

allows per match

Academica

1.12

Leixoes

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academica+0.00on par

Leixoes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Leixoes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Academica or draw

68%

Academica or Leixoes

72%

Draw or Leixoes

60%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+

18%

Leixoes wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals

72%

Academica 2+ goals

36%

Academica 3+ goals

13%

Leixoes 1+ goals

66%

Leixoes 2+ goals

29%

Leixoes 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)

56%

Leixoes (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.12 · 65 matches

Leixoes away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.29 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.23 + Leixoes defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.26

Leixoes attack 1.04 + Academica defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Academica scores more

40%

level

28%

Leixoes scores more

32%

Academica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Fábio Vianna← Fabiano

32'

João Mário← Rafael Furtado

33'

38'

43'

58'

59'

Jefferson Encada← Kiki Silva

59'

Joca← Rodrigo Ferreira

65'

NenêPenalty

73'

Dani Costa← Mike

73'

Filipe Chaby← Fabinho

73'

Mimito Biai← Guima

78'

Rafael Vieira

83'

A. Sapara← Nenê

90'

Fabio Vianna

90+4'

Lucas Lopes← A. Ebralidze

90+2'

João Mário

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AcademicaLeixoes

Overview

57%Possession43%

7Total Shots2

5Corners1

14Fouls18

Shots

7Total Shots2

4On Target2

3Off Target0

Passing

57%Possession43%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls18

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

4Offsides3