Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Academica vs Felgueiras 1932 — Liga 3 2021

Academica
Academica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
4/13/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 9Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Academica36%
×Draw27%
Felgueiras 193236%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.22
Felgueiras 1932
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 44 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Felgueiras 1932
1.39

allows per match

Academica
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.11

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Academica or draw
64%
Academica or Felgueiras 1932
73%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
64%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
16%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
70%
Academica 2+ goals
34%
Academica 3+ goals
12%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
70%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
34%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
50%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.39 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Academica scores more
36%
level
27%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
36%

Academica at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Academica 1–1 Felgueiras 1932

Academica and Felgueiras 1932 drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.