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Academica vs Famalicao — Segunda Liga 2018

Academica
Academica
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Famalicao
Famalicao
Zé Castro 90+5' (OG)
12/17/2018Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 12Estádio EFAPEL (Coimbra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Academica39%
×Draw27%
Famalicao35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.31
Famalicao
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 21 away

creates per match

Academica
1.37
Famalicao
1.29

allows per match

Academica
1.16
Famalicao
1.24

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Famalicao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Academica or draw
65%
Academica or Famalicao
73%
Draw or Famalicao
61%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
17%
Famalicao wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
73%
Academica 2+ goals
38%
Academica 3+ goals
14%
Famalicao 1+ goals
71%
Famalicao 2+ goals
35%
Famalicao 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
53%
Famalicao (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.16 · 63 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.37 + Famalicao defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.31

Famalicao attack 1.29 + Academica defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Academica scores more
39%
level
27%
Famalicao scores more
35%

Academica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+5'
Zé CastroOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Academica 0–1 Famalicao

Famalicao beat Academica 1-0 in Segunda Liga on December 17, 2018.

Goals: Zé Castro (90+5' o.g.).

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL (Coimbra).