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Academica vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Taça de Portugal 2018

Academica
Academica
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
9/7/2024Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Academica16%
×Draw20%
Benfica Castelo Branco64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
0.97
Benfica Castelo Branco
2.17

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 124% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Benfica Castelo Branco
3.00

allows per match

Academica
1.33
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Academica or draw
36%
Academica or Benfica Castelo Branco
80%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
84%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
5%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
62%
Academica 2+ goals
25%
Academica 3+ goals
7%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
89%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
64%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
20%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + Academica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Academica scores more
16%
level
20%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
64%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academica vs Benfica Castelo Branco

Academica beat Benfica Castelo Branco 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.