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Académica do Lobito vs Dragão — Girabola 2019

Académica do Lobito
Académica do Lobito
FT
2 – 0
Dragão
Dragão
10/29/2022GirabolaGirabola · Round 6Estádio do Buraco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Académica do Lobito70%
×Draw20%
Dragão10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Lobito
1.96
Dragão
0.59

Académica do Lobito creates 232% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 14 away

creates per match

Académica do Lobito
1.13
Dragão
0.43

allows per match

Académica do Lobito
0.76
Dragão
2.79

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par
Dragão+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Dragão →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw
90%
Académica do Lobito or Dragão
80%
Draw or Dragão
30%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+
44%
Dragão wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals
86%
Académica do Lobito 2+ goals
58%
Académica do Lobito 3+ goals
31%
Dragão 1+ goals
45%
Dragão 2+ goals
12%
Dragão 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)
87%
Dragão (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Dragão away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Dragão defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

Dragão attack 0.43 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more
70%
level
20%
Dragão scores more
10%

Académica do Lobito at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Académica do Lobito vs Dragão

Académica do Lobito beat Dragão 2-0 in Girabola on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Buraco in Lobito.