Académica do Lobito 1–0 Cuando Cubango

Académica do Lobito

FT

1 – 0

Cuando Cubango

10/26/2019

Girabola · Round 10Estádio do Buraco (Lobito)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Académica do Lobito49%

×Draw29%

Cuando Cubango22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Académica do LobitoExpected goals in this matchCuando Cubango

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.78

Académica do Lobito

1.31

Cuando Cubango

0.78

Académica do Lobito creates 68% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 50 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

0.76

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Académica do Lobito

1.13

Cuando Cubango

0.80

allows per match

Académica do Lobito

0.76

Cuando Cubango

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Académica do Lobito+0.00on par

Cuando Cubango+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Lobito ↓

Cuando Cubango →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Académica do Lobito or draw

78%

Académica do Lobito or Cuando Cubango

71%

Draw or Cuando Cubango

51%

Winning margin

Académica do Lobito wins by 2+

23%

Cuando Cubango wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Académica do Lobito 1+ goals

73%

Académica do Lobito 2+ goals

38%

Académica do Lobito 3+ goals

14%

Cuando Cubango 1+ goals

54%

Cuando Cubango 2+ goals

18%

Cuando Cubango 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Académica do Lobito (draw refunded)

69%

Cuando Cubango (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Lobito at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.76 · 98 matches

Cuando Cubango away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.50 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Lobito attack 1.13 + Cuando Cubango defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Cuando Cubango attack 0.80 + Académica do Lobito defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Académica do Lobito scores more

49%

level

29%

Cuando Cubango scores more

22%

Académica do Lobito at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Académica do Lobito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff