Academia Cantolao 2–0 UTC Cajamarca: Result & Stats

Academia Cantolao

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

UTC Cajamarca

7/23/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 5Estadio Municipal Segundo Aranda Torres

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Academia Cantolao43%

×Draw27%

UTC Cajamarca31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia CantolaoExpected goals in this matchUTC Cajamarca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.14

Academia Cantolao

1.40

UTC Cajamarca

1.14

Academia Cantolao creates 23% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 144 away

1.16

creates per match

0.91

1.37

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Academia Cantolao

1.16

UTC Cajamarca

0.91

allows per match

Academia Cantolao

1.37

UTC Cajamarca

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

UTC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

UTC Cajamarca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw

69%

Academia Cantolao or UTC Cajamarca

73%

Draw or UTC Cajamarca

57%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

20%

UTC Cajamarca wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

75%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

41%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

17%

UTC Cajamarca 1+ goals

68%

UTC Cajamarca 2+ goals

32%

UTC Cajamarca 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

58%

UTC Cajamarca (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.63 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.16 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

UTC Cajamarca attack 0.91 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more

43%

level

27%

UTC Cajamarca scores more

31%

Academia Cantolao at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff