Academia Cantolao 1–0 UCV Moquegua: Result & Stats

Academia Cantolao

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

UCV Moquegua

M. López 21'

5/20/2024

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Academia Cantolao35%

×Draw27%

UCV Moquegua38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia CantolaoExpected goals in this matchUCV Moquegua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.25

Academia Cantolao

1.19

UCV Moquegua

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.10

creates per match

1.20

1.30

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Academia Cantolao

1.10

UCV Moquegua

1.20

allows per match

Academia Cantolao

1.30

UCV Moquegua

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

UCV Moquegua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

UCV Moquegua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw

62%

Academia Cantolao or UCV Moquegua

73%

Draw or UCV Moquegua

65%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

15%

UCV Moquegua wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

70%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

33%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

12%

UCV Moquegua 1+ goals

71%

UCV Moquegua 2+ goals

36%

UCV Moquegua 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

48%

UCV Moquegua (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

UCV Moquegua away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.10 + UCV Moquegua defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.19

UCV Moquegua attack 1.20 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more

35%

level

27%

UCV Moquegua scores more

38%

UCV Moquegua at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "UCV Moquegua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

M. López

46'

R. Ramírez← P. Lovera

49'

53'

60'

64'

64'

A. Gastelú← C. Flores

71'

A. Davila

71'

M. Cabanillas← J. Esparza

71'

R. Alzamora← F. da Costa

73'

J. Reynoso← J. Tapia

87'

L. Centurión← J. Cornejo

87'

M. Menéndez← F. Fano

Academia

UCV

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Sócola

49'▲G. Leyva←▼M. López

64'▲M. Negrón←▼G. Oliva

71'▲M. Cabanillas←▼J. Esparza

71'▲R. Alzamora←▼F. da Costa

Academia Cantolao substitutes

LeyvaNegrónCabanillasAlzamoraFloresUcedaGarcíaBettocchiChávez

Manager: E. Torres

46'▲R. Ramírez←▼P. Lovera

64'▲A. Gastelú←▼C. Flores

73'▲J. Reynoso←▼J. Tapia

87'▲L. Centurión←▼J. Cornejo

87'▲M. Menéndez←▼F. Fano

UCV Moquegua substitutes

RamírezGastelúReynosoCenturiónMenéndezCaytuiroCuevaRodríguez

Segunda División: Academia Cantolao 1–0 UCV Moquegua

Academia Cantolao beat UCV Moquegua 1-0 in Segunda División on May 20, 2024.

Goals: M. López (21').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno in Lima.

Academia Cantolao vs UCV Moquegua — Segunda División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Academia Cantolao 1–0 UCV Moquegua