Academia Cantolao 1–1 U. San Martin: Result & Stats

Academia Cantolao

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

U. San Martin

M. López 14'

J. Gómez 89'

6/15/2024

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio Municipal Iván Elías Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Academia Cantolao37%

×Draw27%

U. San Martin36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Academia CantolaoExpected goals in this matchU. San Martin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Academia Cantolao

1.27

U. San Martin

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 42 away

1.10

creates per match

1.21

1.30

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Academia Cantolao

1.10

U. San Martin

1.21

allows per match

Academia Cantolao

1.30

U. San Martin

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Academia Cantolao+0.00on par

U. San Martin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academia Cantolao ↓

U. San Martin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Academia Cantolao or draw

64%

Academia Cantolao or U. San Martin

73%

Draw or U. San Martin

63%

Winning margin

Academia Cantolao wins by 2+

16%

U. San Martin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Academia Cantolao 1+ goals

72%

Academia Cantolao 2+ goals

36%

Academia Cantolao 3+ goals

14%

U. San Martin 1+ goals

71%

U. San Martin 2+ goals

36%

U. San Martin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Academia Cantolao (draw refunded)

51%

U. San Martin (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academia Cantolao at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 30 matches

U. San Martin away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.43 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academia Cantolao attack 1.10 + U. San Martin defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

U. San Martin attack 1.21 + Academia Cantolao defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Academia Cantolao scores more

37%

level

27%

U. San Martin scores more

36%

Academia Cantolao at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Academia Cantolao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

27'

38'

41'

46'

46'

H. Vergara← D. Ismodes

52'

M. Matzuda← R. García

58'

J. Lara← M. López

62'

P. Castillo

65'

S. Cornejo

65'

M. Cabanillas← G. Oliva

69'

G. Delgado

72'

V. Delgado

80'

A. Uceda← V. Delgado

80'

F. da Costa← F. Pérez

84'

D. Reyes← J. Arroé

84'

J. Gómez← P. Castillo

87'

H. Vergara

89'

J. Gómez

90+3'

M. Cabanillas

Academia

U.

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Sócola

46'▲J. Delgado←▼S. Taype

58'▲J. Lara←▼M. López

65'▲M. Cabanillas←▼G. Oliva

80'▲A. Uceda←▼V. Delgado

80'▲F. da Costa←▼F. Pérez

Academia Cantolao substitutes

DelgadoLaraCabanillasUcedaCostaHerreraNegrónBettocchiChávez

Manager: D. Cisneros

27'▲S. Cornejo←▼H. Bazán

46'▲H. Vergara←▼D. Ismodes

52'▲M. Matzuda←▼R. García

84'▲D. Reyes←▼J. Arroé

84'▲J. Gómez←▼P. Castillo

U. San Martin substitutes

CornejoVergaraMatzudaReyesGómezGonzálesVeraCanoSotelo